Israel, Lebanon, and Hizbollah Did Not Win Or Lose, Just the People Lost

There has been a lot of talk about Israel losing and Hizbollah winning and all that. But it seems too crass to talk about winners. Could we say that the people of Lebanon were anything but losers? 1,100 Lebanese civilians, all with families that are in mourning certainly didn’t win from Hizbollah and Israel’s actions. Plus the $3 Billion in infrastructure costs will do nothing but help strengthen opponents of an independent democratic Lebanon.

Israelis certainly did not win; not only is the terror threat from Hizbollah not diminished, but the crisis cost 156 Israeli families’ their loved ones, and did not result in the return of their soldiers. Not to mention that Israel’s position in a tumultuous region is weakened by appearing as failing to defeat a far inferior power.

In the end, the people are once again the losers of violence; that is why I am always skeptical of articles that try to lay blame on one group or another. It always involves simplistic accusations and blaming.

The figures who gained and lost from this war are not countries but rather cross nationalities. The victims of the international game of violence were the citizens of each country. The beneficiaries were of course the Elite who launched the war and were far from the violence. That is what struck me about this article as it starts with this understanding of who benefits from violence.

Open Democracy is a great site for ideas and information. You should check it out.

"Whatever happens, Hizbollah has already won"

In Homage to Catalonia, his 1938 account of his experiences during the Spanish revolution at the start of the country's civil war, George Orwell asked an important question that is directly relevant to the current Israeli-Lebanese war. In light of a British foreign policy of "non-interference" which hindered the Spanish republic and helped its fascist opponents (thus paving the way for the second world war), Orwell commented: "(whether) the British ruling class are wicked or merely stupid is one of the most difficult questions of our time".

In that respect, today's war in Lebanon is analogous to the situation that Orwell lived through and reflected on in Spain. On 6 August 2006, Haim Ramon, the Israeli minister of justice, explained how the Tel Aviv government was intending to proceed in the coming days. He said that "we have to continue fighting, continue hitting anyone we can hit in Hizbollah, and I assume that as long as that goes on, Israel's standing diplomatically and militarily, will improve".

Could it possibly be that Israel's security cabinet does not realise that the effect of its current campaign may very well be the exact opposite of what it intends to achieve? Is Ramon not aware that his government has transformed Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah's secretary-general, into one of the most influential, powerful and popular leaders in the middle east?

The stated objective of Israel's government and military forces since the beginning of the war has varied, but they have been consistent in seeking to reoccupy a portion of Lebanese land, perhaps all the way up to the Litani river. At the same time, the Israelis are intent on damaging the prestige that Hizbollah enjoys in both Lebanon and the Arab world. In this regard, the Israeli offensive has been a complete failure. The comparison cries out to be made: in 1967, the Israelis conquered the joint armies of Egypt, Syria and Jordan, and occupied enormous tracks of land in a mere six days; in 1973, the Israelis defeated these same armies, who were joined that time by Iraq, in twenty days; at the time of writing, Israel does not seem anywhere near defeating Hizbollah, a small guerrilla army of at most 5,000 fighters, although the conflict is now almost a month old.

The effect has been an enormous boost for Hizbollah in the Arab and Muslim worlds. Hassan Nasrallah has made three speeches since the conflict began, and each occasion brings a significant part of the Arab world to a standstill. People throughout the middle east stand silently next to their radios, huddle attentively around their televisions, and consider his every word with both admiration and worry that he might reveal that Hizbollah has suffered a defeat.

After one such occasion, Omar, a taxi driver from Amman, Jordan, said to me: "the only thing that I ask is for the chance to fight alongside Hizbollah". I have heard this same desire expressed more than a dozen times in the past few days alone. Mahmoud, the manager of a small hotel in Syria, urged his staff to provide assistance to the flow of Lebanese refugees into their country, and declared: "Hizbollah's victory will be our victory". Ayla, an apolitical 19-year old architecture student from Beirut, best expressed the feeling that is prevalent amongst most Arabs when she said that "whatever happens now, Hizbollah has already won".

I heard this expressed by Muslim youths on British TV, that they to want to fight along Hizbollah. I don’t even want to get into how terrible it is when perpetuators of violence become heroes, but it's not to Israel’s benefit. And worse off it’s a war that cannot destroy Hizbollah.

Hizbollah has indeed already won. Hizbollah has won because, despite its inferior weaponry, and its comparatively insignificant numbers, it has so far successfully managed to defend Lebanese territory.

…What is striking is that this skyrocketing in support for Hizbollah in the Arab world has occurred despite widespread ignorance about what the movement stands for and who it represents. Mohammed, an Egyptian employee of a foreign embassy in Cairo, professed the view that Hassan Nasrallah is the only real leader that the Arab world has produced since Jamal Abdel Nasser, then asked me: "please tell me something. Do the hi'a pray? Do they fast during Ramadan? Are they Muslims?" Waleed, an Algerian law student, asked: "is it true that they don't read the Qur'an?"

This is really striking how united support for Hizbollah, this is just a sad reality of the conflict. Support is rising for a violent group. A Poll on Lebanese Support for Hizbollah:

A national poll conducted in Lebanon two weeks ago by the Beirut Center for Research and Information showed a sharp rise in support for Hezbollah since the Israeli invasion: 87 percent of respondents supported Hezbollah's military response, including 89 percent of Sunnis and 80 percent of Christians. Five months ago, just 58 percent supported Hezbollah’s right to remain armed. Also, 89 percent of the respondents said the US was not an honest broker, not responding positively to Lebanon's needs and concerns.

So the world is uniting, but not in support of peace or peaceful political movements, but for opposition to the US and its perceived dirivitives. Away from truly helpful political organizations and toward violent opposition. That has been the true loss of this War, a peaceful future.

Israel needs a united Lebanon opposed to a violent Hizbollah to force it to disarm. Now it is seen as the only possible opposition to “Israeli aggression. The Arab league is unified in a way not seen in years, and the US and Israel’s prestige in the region are even worse (as if that were possible). Lebanon a country that was coming back from years of war, democracy growing and opposition to Syria all positives for Israel and the US are set years back. Complete failure to achieve any of the objectives set out.

So again George Orwell’s question remains, "(whether) the British ruling class are wicked or merely stupid is one of the most difficult questions of our time.” Question seems to still remain today.